Rocket Lab looks like it's building the future of space infrastructure — but the numbers tell a more complicated story.

It’s easy to get caught up in the hype when a stock 4x’s in a year, but if you're actually looking at the business fundamentals, there’s a mix of solid execution, wild expectations, and some red flags

What Rocket Lab Actually Does

Rocket Lab isn’t just another launch company trying to be “the next SpaceX.”
They’ve built a vertically integrated space platform: they design, build, and launch rockets (Electron and soon Neutron), manufacture satellites, and now offer end-to-end space systems.

That means they want to own everything from the engines and satellites to the launchpad and the data pipeline — basically, the AWS of low-Earth orbit.

Electron is their bread and butter right now — a small launch vehicle that's already flown over 40 missions. It’s targeting the fast-growing market for lightweight payloads: CubeSats, research gear, and constellations.

Neutron, their next-gen rocket, is supposed to challenge Falcon 9 by carrying larger payloads and eventually humans — but that’s not launching until late 2025 at the earliest.

They’ve also expanded into satellite manufacturing with their "Photon" platform, and are pushing into communications with the proposed acquisition of Mynaric — a laser-optics company from Germany that specialises in inter-satellite data links.

The Bull Case

Revenue is growing fast.

They did $436 million in 2024 — a 78% jump from the year before.
That growth is coming from both launches and satellite manufacturing, with the latter showing surprisingly strong margins.

They’re not just a space-for-hire company — they’re building the tools and infrastructure for long-term demand: comms, defence, and data delivery in orbit.
The Mynaric acquisition (laser comms tech) and their new “Flatellite” satellite platform signal a shift into scaled manufacturing.

If it all works, Rocket Lab could be the go-to for custom orbital solutions the way AWS is for cloud.

They were also selected by the US Space Force as part of the $5.6 billion NSSL Phase 3 programme — not small potatoes.
That puts them alongside SpaceX and ULA as an accepted provider for national security launches. That’s huge for credibility and cash flow.

The Other Side of the Story

Here’s the bit the moon boys don’t want to hear: Rocket Lab still isn’t profitable.
They lost $190 million in 2024 — and that’s not a fluke.

Despite the revenue jump, they’re still deep in the red, largely due to aggressive R&D and capital investment (Neutron is a big-ticket project).

There are also one-off items in their financials — things like government subsidies, grants, and accounting treatments that make the earnings look cleaner than they are.

Strip those out, and the underlying profitability is even weaker.

Cash burn is still high, and while they’ve got decent liquidity, the current runway doesn’t last forever if Neutron or Flatellite hit delays.
In this business, delays are the rule, not the exception.

Valuation Has Gotten… Silly

The stock is up over 300% in the past year.

Retail sentiment is hot, and the space sector in general is seeing a bit of a hype resurgence.

But fundamentals haven’t caught up yet, and at these prices, the market is pricing in flawless execution across multiple fronts.

Average analyst price target is around $24 — which assumes they stay on track with Neutron, integrate Mynaric cleanly, and start converting backlog into recurring revenue.

Miss any of those milestones, and the downside could come fast.

My Take

Rocket Lab is one of the most credible non-SpaceX players in the game.
They’ve got hardware in space, real contracts, and serious ambitions to scale.
But they’re also in a phase where a single bad quarter, a delay, or a bad launch could hammer the stock.

If you’re in this, you’re not just investing in today’s metrics — you’re betting that they become a backbone of orbital infrastructure in the next 5–10 years.

I’m watching them closely, but I’m not backing up the truck just yet, that having been said, I own 1500 shares of Rocket Lab, so I’m putting my money where my mouth is, I believe they have a bright future and will be fundamental to our shift to space.

Disclaimer:
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Always do your own research and consult a professional before making investment decisions. I may hold positions in the companies mentioned.